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Wednesday, September 14, 2011

President Barack Obama’s jobs plan is unlikely to have any meaningful impact on U.S. economic growth

President Barack Obama’s jobs plan is unlikely to have any meaningful impact on U.S. economic growth, according to Gluskin Sheff chief economist and strategist David Rosenberg.

In a recent note to clients, Rosenberg characterized the plan as “smoke and mirrors.”

“Much of it is merely rolling over existing tax relief passed in late 2010, such as payroll taxes for workers and extended jobless benefits,” he wrote. ”I’ll put it to you this way. Assuming (i) that the House Republicans do not accept the Obama spending measures, and (ii) half of the tax relief goes into savings and debt reduction, then we are talking about the grand total of $35 billion of net new stimulus from this ‘jobs plan’. That’s principally because so much of it is merely extending what is already in the system.”

Rosenberg – a long-time bull on gold and U.S. Treasuries, and one of the few economists to accurately predict much of the financial crisis in 2008 – went on to say that “At an annual rate, that is a 0.2% boost to baseline GDP growth. In other words: much ado about nothin’. It doesn’t even come close to offsetting the ongoing drag from the retrenchment at the state and local government levels.”

The gold price rallied Wednesday morning, gaining $28.10 to $1,843.10 per ounce. Gold prices have oscillated in a wide trading band over the past two months, falling as low as $1,704 in late August and then climbing to a fresh record of $1922.20 in early September. The price of gold is currently trading in the middle of the range as investors and investment strategists debate whether the yellow metal is set to break out or break down.

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