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Saturday, September 10, 2011

Longer-term outlook for the gold price remains bright – notwithstanding shorter-term corrections as is occurring this morning.

The sharp reversal lower in the gold price did not coincide with any significant macroeconomic news, although speculation has risen in recent days that the COMEX is planning to hike gold margins once again. Commenting on the gold price sell-off, Macquarie analyst Hayden Atkins wrote in a note to clients that “People are probably very exposed to gold now, because they’ve been so bullish, yet the technicals aren’t that great now that you’ve had that double-top pattern coming through.”

Atkins went on to say that “There is no real direction provided by other markets. I guess this is a sign that people are interested in taking profits at these kinds of prices, in the absence of direction from anywhere else.” The “double-top” pattern that he referred to stems from the fact that the gold price peaked near $1,920 per ounce on two occasions over the past month – August 22 and September 6 – and subsequently turned sharply lower on each occasion. This development is often a worrisome sign from a technical perspective and can lead to further price declines.

The gold price slid $14.3 to $1,855.80 per ounce Friday night closing amid widespread liquidation in precious metals. In doing so, the price of gold surrendered approximately half of yesterday’s 2.9% rally and turned back into negative territory for the week. Yesterday the gold price held firm after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech on the economy and U.S. President Barack Obama’s jobs speech last evening. COMEX gold futures – per the December 2011 contract – climbed to $1,889.10 in overnight trading, but tumbled to as low as $1,825.50 at approximately 6:15am ET on heavy volume.

Coupled with fact that the Fed has committed itself to near-zero interest rates through mid-2013 and is expected to launch further easing measures in the coming months, the longer-term outlook for the gold price remains bright – notwithstanding shorter-term corrections as is occurring this morning.

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