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Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Gold popping still above $1,700

Gold price came off sharply on in the wake of the surprising nonfarm payrolls figures, as a stronger dollar and increased risk appetite saw investors shun the complex. After the past week’s rally, some profit-taking most likely also contributed to the downward pressure. The trend has continued into this morning, with concerns over the Eurozone aiding further dollar strength and weighing gold down.

This has been the most aggressive display of confidence in gold we’ve seen in some time. However, given that these moves were largely as a result of the Fed’s dovish announcement, and that before these moves the futures market remained cautious of gold’s prospects, we still would not be surprised to see a pull-back.
ETFs added a relatively strong 14.1 tonnes of gold. ETF holdings now stand at 2,466.0 tonnes — closing in on the 12-month high of 2,469.7 tonnes recorded in early December.

We maintain gold will reach new highs in 2012, probably towards Q3. However, with gold popping still above $1,700, we are witnessing growing resistance from the physical market. We see good value on approach of $1,600.

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