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Friday, August 26, 2011

we remain bullish on the price of goldas long as the motivating factors of fear and uncertainty surrounding the world’s economies and monetary systems

The gold price fell again on Thursday, sinking $28.75 to $1,730.50 per ounce. The price of gold fell as low as $1,704, however rebound back to $1,763.20 Friday morning – from lowest $1,704 is a level that is 10.9% off the $1,913 high posted earlier this week. Heavy liquidation of COMEX gold futures weighed on the yellow metal.

The Dundee strategist noted that over the past six and a half years, on average approximately 44% of the gains made during rallies “have been eroded in subsequent corrective periods.” As for the duration of the gold price corrections, they have lasted approximately 42% as many weeks as the prior rally.

The most recent gold price advance totaled $395 from July 1 to August 22. Based on the average historical data, Burchell determined that the current correction in the price of gold would take the yellow metal to approximately $1,700 per ounce over the course of three weeks. In a more extreme scenario, the gold price could fall to $1,625 per ounce within a five-week timeframe.

Over the longer-term, however, the Dundee strategist reiterated his bullish stance. “As we have stated many times in the past, we remain bullish on the price of gold, and expect bullion to continue its upward trek (and defy gravity) as long as the motivating factors of fear and uncertainty surrounding the world’s economies and monetary systems continue,” he wrote. “In fact, we would be so bold as to suggest the party (for gold bugs, at least) won’t end until real interest rates turn sharply positive.”

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