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Wednesday, July 20, 2011

The gold price moved slightly lower

The gold price moved slightly lower Wednesday morning, sliding $16.14 to $1588.66 per ounce. Gold price have climbed for eleven consecutive days, the longest such streak in 31 years. Yesterday, the gold price surpassed $1,600 per ounce for the first time on its way to yet another series of new all-time highs. The price of gold reached an intra-day record high of $1,610 per ounce before settling near $1,605 per ounce. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a proxy for the gold price and the world’s largest gold ETF, advanced $1.37, or 0.9%, to $156.57 per share.

While the gold price and gold equities advanced, the broader markets tumbled amid rising concerns over the European sovereign debt crisis and the looming U.S. debt ceiling deadline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) slid as much as 183.5 points, before paring its losses to close lower by 94.57 points, or 0.8%, at 12,385.16. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked 7.3% to 20.95, as investor risk aversion moved higher.

European markets experienced widespread selling after a host of analysts expressed concerns over the lax assumptions made in the latest round of euro zone bank stress tests. J.P. Morgan wrote in a note to clients that “We remain worried about the secondary effect of the sovereign crisis into funding. Funding is the key concern, and without stress liquidity assumptions, the picture remains incomplete – especially in current market conditions.”

Michael Churchill, of Churchill Research, sounded even more cautious in his latest report. “This week’s plunge in Italian sovereign debt takes the European debt crisis to a whole new level,” he wrote. “It’s time to start thinking about apocalyptic scenarios. Live possibilities include Italian default, crack-up of the Eurozone, global recession, European hyperinflation” and/or a $3,000 gold price.”

“The one scenario that is increasingly unlikely is that everything just goes back to normal,” Churchill continued. “The debts are too large. The banks are too weak. The policies are too anti-growth.”

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